ExplainerChina trade: 5 takeaways from November’s data as exports edge up for first time in 7 months

China’s exports rose by 0.5 per cent, year on year, in November to US$291.9 billion, marking the first positive reading since April

Imports fell by 0.6 per cent, year on year, last month to US$223.5 billion

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China’s exports beat expectations in November, rising by 0.5 per cent from a year earlier, but imports disappointed and fell by 0.6 per cent, data released on Thursday showed. Photo:A FP

Published: 7:00am, 8 Dec 2023

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1. ‘Green shoots’ emerge as China’s exports end slide

China’s exports edged up for the first time in seven months in November, increasing by 0.5 per cent from a year earlier to US$291.9 billion.

The reading was better than the fall of 6.4 per cent in October, and was above the forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind, which projected an increase of 0.4 per cent.

The year-on-year jump - the first such increase since May - and the level of export volumes hitting a fresh high was supported by exporters reducing prices, according to analysts at Capital Economics.

“We doubt this robustness will persist, however, as exporters wont be able to continue cutting prices for much longer,” they said.

After accounting for price effects and seasonality, Capital Economics estimated that export volumes rose by 1 per cent last month, reaching a record high.

“China’s export growth turned positive in November. The improvement in exports is broadly in line with market expectation,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.