Taiwan returns to monthly export growth as erratic year comes to a close
- Taiwan’s exports, up-and-down in recent months after a long period of contraction, have re-entered a growth pattern in November
- Pickup in demand for hi-tech goods seen as sign of more positive trends next year, particularly if consumption in mainland China also rises
Exports from Taiwan re-entered positive territory in November on the way to what analysts are anticipating as a banner 2024, especially if consumers in mainland China resume buying phones and PCs.
Hi-tech giants on the island have finally controlled inventory that accumulated after pandemic-era telework and telestudy purchases died down, analysts said, adding makers of phones, PCs and their components should expect everyday gadget shopping to rebound in 2024.
“As the bottoming out in the global chip cycle and the world’s embrace of artificial intelligence lead to stronger demand for advanced semiconductors, Taiwanese industrial production and exports will benefit,” Moody’s Analytics associate economist Jeemin Bang said.
Taiwan is the world’s biggest seller of chips, which can be installed in a range of electronic devices. Tech, including the assembly of common consumer electronics such as phones, makes up about a third of the island’s economy.
Eyes will be on consumer sentiment in the mainland next year as a prime market for hi-tech gadgets, but analysts aren’t yet confident enough to don rose-coloured glasses.
“We’re not getting too excited,” said Tony Phoo, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Taipei. He expressed caution over possible headwinds stymieing the mainland’s own exports – a bellwether for its wider economic prosperity. That figure, he said, “would need to pick up dramatically.”