China’s road to economic recovery set to remain bumpy without policy shift after investment drags in November
- Real estate investment fell by 9.4 per cent in the first 11 months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, while private investment remained in contraction
- China’s retail sales rose by over 10 per cent in November, year on year, but Beijing still faces lots of challenges to manage an uneven economic recovery
China’s economic recovery remained bumpy in November, prompting increased calls from analysts for Beijing to enact supportive policies to assist property developers and shore up market confidence.
Industrial output grew at a faster pace last month compared with October, but a persistent decline in property and private investment, and fragile consumer confidence, underscored the ongoing challenges for China.
Private investment, meanwhile, dropped by 0.5 per cent in the first 11 months of the year, compared to a year earlier, remaining in negative growth territory for the seventh consecutive month.
The weakness in both sectors largely offset fixed-asset investment growth, which expanded by 2.9 in the first 11 months, year on year, unchanged from the expansion seen in the January-October period.
“Anything vaguely related to real estate (property investment, real estate sales, fixed asset investment) went backwards,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING.
“China’s recovery is ongoing. But it still looks narrowly based and vulnerable to any further worsening in the real estate sector.”
But Beijing is under pressure to step up economic support measures, with local government debt, weak demand and external headwinds continuing to weigh on the economy.
Elsewhere, China’s retail sales rose by 10.1 per cent in November, year on year, up from 7.6 per cent growth in October.
China’s retail sales, excluding seasonal factors, showed a mild contraction in monthly growth, which suggested consumer sentiment remained fragile, said Yue Su, principal economist for China at The Economics Intelligence Unit.
“[Weakening consumer demand] will lead to increased real financing costs that hinder spending and private investment. This, in turn, could further restrict the overall recovery of the economy,” Su said.
On Thursday, Beijing and Shanghai rolled out a fresh round of stimulus measures – including cuts to down payment ratios and the extension of deadlines for mortgage repayments – as part of latest efforts to boost demand in a stagnant housing market.
But Su added that the central government is unlikely to introduce more aggressive reforms.
Elsewhere, China’s industrial output rose by 6.6 per cent, year on year, compared to 4.6 per cent growth in October.
“This partly reflects the recent strength of exports, which reached a new high in volume terms last month,” said analysts at Capital Economics.
“Overall, the economy was still making headway last month. And given positive signals from policymakers, we continue to anticipate a modest rebound over the coming quarters.”
Finally, the urban surveyed unemployment rate stood at 5 per cent, year on year, unchanged from October.
This week’s central economic work conference emphasised the need to ensure economic growth momentum and strengthen fiscal policy, suggesting that Beijing would adopt expansionary policies and further widen the official budget deficit.
“The road to recovery may remain bumpy unless the policy response could shift from a reactive mode like this year to a proactive one,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital.
Whether the weak trend in property and private investment would continue into next year would largely depend on China’s ability to introduce timely effective policies, Hu said.
“The main issue that lies in the property sector is that banks are afraid of lending to developers, this needs the intervention of the central government. I think Beijing should set up a special fund to inject capital flow to developers,” Hu added.
Also on Friday, China’s central bank injected the most cash via one-year policy loans on record, with the People’s Bank of China offering commercial lenders 1.45 trillion yuan (US$204 billion) via its medium-term lending facility – 800 billion yuan more than the expected maturity this month.
“If the housing market can be stabilised, and at the same time the government is willing to increase investment on infrastructure and other public services, we may gradually see that the Chinese economy will be stabilised and have a recovery down the track,” He Fan, dean of the China Development Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said during a conference in Hong Kong on Friday.
Additional reporting by Kandy Wong