Explainer | Is China’s economic recovery still making headway? 6 takeaways from November’s data

Real estate investment fell by 9.4 per cent in the first 11 months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, while private investment remained in contraction

China’s retail sales rose by over 10 per cent in November, year on year, but Beijing still faces lots of challenges to manage an uneven economic recovery

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Property investment in China fell by 9.4 per cent in the first 11 months of 2023, compared with a year earlier. Photo: AP

Published: 12:00am, 16 Dec 2023Updated: 2:01am, 16 Dec 2023

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1. Retail sales ‘hold up well’

China’s retail sales rose by 10.1 per cent in November, year on year, up from the 7.6 per cent growth in October, but below the 12.6 per cent growth forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind.

Analysts at Capital Economics said consumption “held up well”, though they pointed to the low base of comparison from last year as cities in China were under stringent lockdowns and retail sales fell by 5.9 per cent, year on year, in November 2022.

“While retail sales have shown strong year-on-year growth, this increase is primarily due to a low-base effect,” said Yue Su, principal economist for China at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

“When considering month-on-month growth, after eliminating seasonal factors, there has been a mild contraction.”

2. Property investment remains biggest drag

Property investment in China fell by 9.4 per cent in the first 11 months of 2023 compared with a year earlier, with analysts at Capital Economics saying “property investment eased slightly” without elaboration.