China trade: exports tumble in March, but ‘robust growth’ on the horizon as overseas demand recovers

China’s exports dropped 7.5 per cent in March compared to a year earlier, while imports dropped by 1.9 per cent

China’s trade has shown fluctuations in the first quarter, but analysts expect the figures to stabilise due to a strong recovery in overseas demand

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China’s exports fell by 7.5 per cent in March compared to a year earlier, while imports fell by 1.9 per cent. Photo: AFP

Published: 3:21pm, 12 Apr 2024Updated: 7:02pm, 12 Apr 2024

China’s export growth declined significantly in March compared to last year, but with shipments in the first quarter overall returning to expansion, a recovery in overseas markets as well as in the digital economy is set to lead to “robust” expansion this year despite geopolitical headwinds.

Exports declined by 7.5 per cent from a year earlier in March to US$279.7 billion, according to customs data released on Friday.

The reading was worse than the expected fall of 2.1 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and was in sharp contrast to the 7.1 per cent growth in combined figures for January and February.

It was dragged down due to a higher base in the same period last year, when China reported robust growth of 14.8 per cent at US$315.59 billion – the highest level recorded in March.

But on a quarterly basis, exports grew by 1.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, rebounding from a contraction of 1.2 per cent in the previous quarter, according to Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“This shows a reasonable story about external demand,” he said.

Last year, China experienced its first decline in export growth in seven years, with shipments dropping by 4.6 per cent due to weak external demand.