IMF ups China’s 2024 GDP forecast, urges focus on market-oriented reforms at July’s third plenum
- International Monetary Fund points to strong first-quarter numbers and property sector moves as revised economic-growth estimate is brought in line with China’s target
- But ‘good reforms’ are still needed, and priorities are said to include making China’s economy more consumption-facing and capable of supporting greater job growth
China’s leaders should strive to ensure that economic growth is more demand driven, according to officials from the International Monetary Fund, as they also emphasised the need for Beijing to underscore market-oriented reforms at a highly anticipated political gathering in July that will set the tone for the country’s development trajectory in the next decade.
“Risks are tilted to the downside, including from a greater- or longer-than-expected property sector adjustment and increasing fragmentation pressures,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said after meeting in the past week with finance officials in the Chinese government – including People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng.
This takes us to things like giving the market a decisive role in the economy … and levelling the playing field
To achieve high-quality growth in the medium and long term, Beijing should conduct structural reforms to counter headwinds and address underlying imbalances, Gopinath said.