As China’s US exports plunge in 2025, Beijing banks on diversification for 2026 growth

China’s exports soared to record highs in 2025, defying trade tensions with Washington as Beijing’s diversification strategy successfully mitigated a decline in US-bound shipments. However, that resilience could face a new test this year, analysts warned. Full-year exports for 2025 climbed 5.5 per cent from a year earlier to US$3.77 trillion, according to customs data released on Wednesday, higher than the 5 per cent growth projected by financial data provider Wind. Imports for the same period remained flat at US$2.58 trillion, exceeding Wind’s estimates for a 0.09 per cent dip. The surge in exports helped China cement a new record annual surplus of US$1.19 trillion. In December alone, outbound shipments rose 6.6 per cent, beating the 2.2 per cent increase projected by Wind and higher than the 5.9 per cent growth recorded in November. Imports for the month rose by 5.7 per cent from a year earlier, better than Wind’s forecast of a 0.3 per cent dip and accelerating from November’s 1.9 per cent growth. China posted a trade surplus of US$114 billion for December. Its cumulative surplus topped US$1 trillion for the first time in November. Wang Jun, vice-minister of the General Administration of Customs, attributed China’s robust export performance last year – in the face of trade headwinds – to supportive policies and the country’s industrial depth. “Our trading partners are increasingly diversified, and our risk-resilience has significantly strengthened,” he said at a press conference in Beijing, though cautioning that the external environment remains challenging this year due to slowing global economic growth. Gary Ng, senior Asia-Pacific economist at French investment bank Natixis, noted that trade tensions remained, and external demand might not be as strong this year as in 2025, as most central banks no longer have much room for further rate cuts. “I think Chinese exports will continue to grow in 2026, but with a slightly slower pace,” Ng said. With US President Donald Trump back in office, many had expected China’s export engine to stall under the weight of fresh tariffs, with some analysts previously forecasting that the contraction in trade volumes would drag on the nation’s gross domestic product. Yet, China’s outbound shipments remained resilient last year, emerging as a critical outperformer for the world’s second-largest economy as domestic consumption remained sluggish. China’s focus on industrial upgrading, price competitiveness and diversification of trade partners underpinned the export sector’s resilience even as trade volumes with the US fell, said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered. Exports to the US fell 30 per cent in December and 20 per cent in 2025, customs data showed. Despite this decline, the US remained China’s biggest export destination by country in 2025. Meanwhile, China’s shipments to the Asean region – China’s largest trading partner in bloc terms – rose 11.2 per cent in December and 13.4 per cent in 2025, and exports to the European Union – its second-largest partner group – expanded by 11.6 per cent in the same month while growing by 8.4 per cent for the whole year. Exports to Latin America grew 9.8 per cent in December and 7.4 per cent in 2025, while shipments to Africa grew 21.8 per cent in December and 25.8 per cent for the year. China’s focus on innovation and technology – a key factor that helped bolster shipments last year – is set to continue as a growth driver for the year ahead, Ding said. Indeed, some of the country’s fastest-growing sectors are in tech. Illustrating this trend, the value of China’s chip exports grew by 26.8 per cent, year on year, to US$201.9 billion in 2025. In terms of volume, China shipped 349.5 billion units last year – an increase of 17.4 per cent from 2024. A sustained acceleration in imports could go a long way towards alleviating pressure on, and from, China’s key trading partners Lynn Song, ING Driven by high demand in EVs, China exported 8.3 million cars last year, up 30 per cent year on year, with the value of automobile exports increasing 21.4 per cent to US$142.5 billion. A more detailed country-by-country breakdown of export categories is expected on January 20. Yet, despite China’s export resilience last year, external uncertainties remain for the year ahead, according to analysts. Ding noted that while friction with the US has eased – after a one-year trade truce was brokered between President Xi Jinping and Trump – trade tensions with other regions may increase. Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, also observed a rise in global trade protectionism. “Should more economies also start ramping up tariffs on China, as Mexico has done and the EU has threatened to do, eventually a tighter squeeze will be seen,” he said, adding that “a sustained acceleration in imports could go a long way towards alleviating pressure on, and from, China’s key trading partners”. Song noted that December’s stronger-than-expected imports were an encouraging sign. Trade tensions have also increasingly been tied to China’s record surplus. EU leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have urged China to bolster domestic consumption, calling the trade imbalances between Beijing and the bloc unsustainable. Beijing is aware of these risks and has made boosting consumption a priority to rebalance the economy this year. “This process will take time, perhaps more time than some of China’s trade partners may like, but we believe this is set to be a key theme of the coming decade and beyond,” Song added.

As China’s US exports plunge in 2025, Beijing banks on diversification for 2026 growth

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Shipments to Asean and Africa surged to drive a record US$1.19 trillion surplus for China, offsetting headwinds as leaders push to boost local demand

Shipments to Asean and Africa surged to drive a record US$1.19 trillion surplus for China, offsetting headwinds as leaders push to boost local demand