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EconomyEconomic Indicators

China’s consumer price growth cools as inflation outlook remains unclear

Consumer price index rose for a fourth straight month in January, though the increase fell short of market expectations

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China’s top economic planner recently signalled new policies to boost spending over the next five years, while tackling price wars. Photo: Xinhua
Xinyi Wuin Beijing

China’s consumer prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in January – although at a slower pace – while the decline in factory-gate prices continued to narrow, in a tentative sign that deflationary pressures in the Chinese economy may be starting to let up.

But analysts said a clearer picture of the outlook for inflation would only emerge in the coming months due to distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday, which typically brings a surge in demand that drives up prices.

The national consumer price index (CPI), a crucial gauge of inflation, rose 0.2 per cent year on year last month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

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The reading missed market expectations for a 0.44 per cent increase, according to a poll of economists by financial data provider Wind. It also represented a slowdown from December, when the CPI rose by 0.8 per cent year on year – the fastest growth recorded in nearly three years.

Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the bureau, attributed the muted CPI growth last month to the different timing of the Lunar New Year holiday – which fell in January last year, but takes place in February this year – and a retreat in global oil prices that dragged down energy prices.

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But Dong stressed that core inflation – a metric that excludes volatile food and energy prices – remained on a “moderate upward trend” as consumer demand recovers. The core CPI rose 0.8 per cent year on year last month.

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