In an indication of just how quickly and deeply the coronavirus pandemic has damaged the world economy, the IMF’s latest global forecast is a complete reversal of its January projection of 3.3 per cent growth.

Even with a sharp rebound during the remainder of the year and sizeable fiscal support, the world’s second largest economy is projected to grow by only 1.2 per cent in 2020, down from the IMF’s previous forecast of 6.0 per cent growth, and far below the 6.1 per cent expansion recorded last year.

The IMF, which has 189 member countries, forecast growth in the most advanced economies to shrink sharply in 2020, including in Italy by minus 9.1 per cent, Spain by minus 8.0 per cent, Britain by minus 6.5 per cent, the United States by minus 5.9 per cent and Japan by minus 5.2 per cent.

Emerging market and developing economies excluding China are projected to shrink collectively by 2.2 per cent in 2020.

The contraction could be even greater if more stringent containment measures are adopted in these countries, which will be more severely hit than developed economies, as factory closures and extensive unemployment will lead to “widespread scarring effects”, the report said.

“There is extreme uncertainty around the global growth forecast. The economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict, including the pathway of the pandemic, the intensity and efficacy of containment efforts, the extent of supply disruptions, the repercussions of the dramatic tightening in global financial market conditions, shifts in spending patterns, behavioural changes, confidence effects, and volatile commodity prices,” the IMF said.

As the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic has shifted from China to the US and Europe, more than 119,000 people have been killed and nearly 2 million infected around the world.

Countries experiencing severe outbreaks will lose about 8 per cent of their working days in 2020, while countries affected less seriously will lose about 5 per cent due to containment measures and social distancing, according to the IMF, which is based in Washington.

Global growth is expected to bounce back to 5.8 per cent in 2021, with advanced economies forecast to grow at 4.5 per cent and emerging market and developing economies forecast to grow by 6.6 per cent.

This, however, depends on the pandemic fading in the second half of 2020, allowing containment efforts to be gradually scaled back and restoring consumer and investor confidence, the report said.

In the face of the “Great Lockdown”, advanced economies such as the US, Britain, Japan and Germany will be more capable of coping with this crisis due to strong governance capacity, well-equipped health care systems and the privilege of issuing reserve currencies.

But developing economies will need help from developed countries and international financial institutions because they lack the same level of assets and support mechanisms, the IMF said.

The international organisation again called for countries to work together to slow the spread of the virus and to continue developing a vaccine to counter the virus.

“Until such medical interventions become available, no country is safe from the pandemic as long as transmission occurs elsewhere,” the report said.