Coronavirus pandemic has made the US more dependent on China, and cut chances of decoupling

The Biden administration looks set to continue many aspects of Trump’s China policy, but Washington’s ability to contain its economic rival has been greatly reduced

The coronavirus pandemic has brought about many changes and made decoupling less realistic, but the US-China conflict will not de-escalate any time soon

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Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, shakes hands with then US vice-president Joe Biden in 2013 in Beijing. Photo: AP

Zhang Lin

Zhang Lin is deputy director and chief macroeconomic researcher at the Far East Credit Rating research institute.

Published: 8:15pm, 2 Feb 2021Updated: 9:00pm, 2 Feb 2021

China has been particularly lucky in the 21st century.

When George W. Bush tried to focus on Beijing as a competitor, the events of September 11 changed his course; China joined the World Trade Organization three months later and achieved 10 years of rapid growth.

When Barack Obama was planning his “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific, the subprime mortgage crisis hit, and the ratio between China’s gross domestic product and that of the United States increased from 25 per cent in 2007 to 35 per cent in 2009,

Likewise, when Donald Trump pushed for economic decoupling, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, and China emerged as the only major economy to record positive growth last year.

That good fortune looks set to continue. In 2025, the size of China’s economy will be 90 per cent of the American economy, and it could surpass it several years later .

Furthermore, by promising medical supplies and vaccines to developing countries to help fight the pandemic, China is expanding its global influence. The world will move closer to China, at least in the next few years.

Against this background, the Biden administration looks set to continue many aspects of Trump’s China policy, but the space for Washington to restrict the world’s second largest economy has been greatly reduced.