Opinion

China population: three-child policy shows Beijing’s desperation to boost births, but it’s no silver bullet

Name: China 2020 census records slowest population growth in decades
Uploaded: 2021-05-31T11:15:10.000Z
Duration: 10 min 42 s
Description: China 2020 census records slowest population growth in decades

China has announced it will allow each couple to have three children in a major policy overhaul aimed at boosting its declining fertility rate

But taken alone, the new initiative will have limited effect because China’s falling fertility rate is due to a host of social and economic factors

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China has announced it will allow each couple to have three children in a major policy overhaul aimed at boosting its declining fertility rate. Photo: Reuters

Zhou Xin

Zhou Xin is Tech Editor of the Post, following stints as Political Economy Editor and Deputy China Editor.

Published: 7:15pm, 31 May 2021Updated: 10:34pm, 31 May 2021

China announced on Monday it would allow every couple to have three children after its two-child policy failed to boost the country’s flagging fertility rate over the past five years. Last year, it dropped to its lowest level since the Great Famine in early 1960s.

But the new measure will have limited effect because the cause of falling births in China has little to do with the restrictions.

The problem with China’s falling fertility rate – the average number of children per woman – is due to social and economic factors. As in other parts of the world, the willingness of women to have kids declines as education and income improves.

China’s fertility rate has dropped steeply over the past several decades thanks to its controversial one child policy, which was enforced through hefty fines, social pressure and forced abortions and sterilisation.

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China 2020 census records slowest population growth in decades

But the birth restrictions are only one factor. It is futile to think an expanded birth quota will dramatically increase the number of children Chinese women are willing to have.

Relaxation of the policy is too little, too late. First of all, a three-child policy is meaningless for those couples who do not want more kids. Secondly, a quota – no matter how big – is still a policy aimed at restricting births and so sends a mixed message to citizens in the world’s most populous country.

Does the Chinese government really want its people to have more babies or not? If it does, then why not scrap the limit altogether?