Ukraine war propels ‘multilateral momentum’ on China-focused ‘Nato for trade’, experts say
- Russia’s war in Ukraine will result in trade becoming more regional or alliance-based as opposed to global, which has long benefited China’s economy, experts say
- The US and European Union are already forging ahead with a coalition to govern use of advanced technology, which could hasten technology decoupling with China
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has renewed talk about formation of a “Nato for trade” alliance to counter unilateral economic coercion, analysts say, while a Washington-led coalition in advanced technology is becoming more likely as competition between China and US intensifies.
The idea of a new trade body outside the World Trade Organization has been discussed by democratic nations since 2020, amid growing concern about China’s weaponisation of trade to punish countries that do not toe its line.
“The multilateral momentum from the Ukraine war is understandably giving fresh life to proposals like ‘Nato for trade’ to see just how far the Group of 7 plus powers can advance coordination on punitive trade measures, from addressing economic coercion to aligning export controls,” said Reva Goujon, senior manager at Rhodium Group.
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The proposal for a trade-based alliance along the lines of the North Atlantic military grouping would allow collective retaliation in response to coercive measures by China.