Will China-Russia trade keep skyrocketing as Ukraine war drags into 2024?

Russia surpassed Australia and Germany to become China’s sixth-largest trading partner by individual countries and regions last year

The 26.3 per cent increase in bilateral trade underlines the ‘no-limits’ partnership between Beijing and Moscow, which has grown since the start of the Ukraine war

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Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Chinese leaders, including President Xi Jinping, in Beijing in late December. Photo: AP

Published: 8:30pm, 19 Jan 2024

China and Russia are exploring new areas of cooperation, including cars and farm produce in 2024, after reaching a record high level of bilateral trade last year, although analysts have warned of uncertainties caused by Western sanctions.

Russia surpassed Australia and Germany to become China’s sixth-largest trading partner by individual countries and regions – after the United States, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan – in 2023, customs data showed, four places higher than two years ago.

The robust trade relationship defied blanket Western sanctions leveraged on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, further anchoring the “no-limits” partnership between Beijing and Moscow.

But questions remain over how high their bilateral trade could be this year, and whether China could be targeted by Western countries for providing Russia with a lifeline.

Trade between China and Russia rose by 26.3 per cent from a year earlier to reach a record US$240 billion last year, according to the General Administration of Customs, comfortably surpassing the original target of US$200 billion.

It was about 36 per cent of the trade value between China and the US during the same period, although Beijing possesses a huge trade surplus across the Pacific as it exports significantly more than it imports.

Chinese shipments to Russia jumped by 46.9 per cent year on year to US$111 billion in 2023, while imports grew by 12.7 per cent to US$129.1 billion.

China’s car export to Russia grew by fivefold to about 800,000 units last year, accounting for about one fifth of its total vehicle exports.