China’s 1 trillion yuan EV, solar and battery exports face overcapacity concerns as US, EU anxieties grow
- Beijing has already recognised overcapacity as a major challenge for 2024, with US and European Union anti-dumping probes and tariffs disrupting trade
- But analysts say that China’s trade frictions are also tied to the economic challenges that it is struggling with at home
China’s 1 trillion yuan (US$139 billion) exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells could face a new round of challenges this year, as Western policymakers have reflected “genuine anxieties” about overcapacity distorting their markets.
Legal action and tariff increases by the United States and European Union against a perceived oversupply of cheap products could set back a critical segment of the world’s second-largest economy, unless China diversifies away from the West and also boosts domestic demand, analysts said.
“The key question is how these industries struggle against these growing headwinds, which aren’t just tied to finding new commercial opportunities, but balancing against geopolitical and trade policy risks, as well,” said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade with the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“I think it will be less of an ‘excuse’ for Western policymakers to engage in protectionism, and more a reflection of genuine anxieties around whether these products are distorting their own markets.”
You can get a sort of immediate protective effect by raising an anti-dumping case
He also noted there is a “growing sentiment” in Western capitals that work against the idea of having their consumers subsidise China’s growth engine.