US agricultural interests, tied to China, see hope in expo orders this week
American pavilion at Shanghai’s China International Import Expo viewed as a show of goodwill to keep trade flowing in difficult geopolitical times
American agricultural business representatives attending the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai expect that the volume of signed deals could exceed last year’s haul, even in the midst of a fickle geopolitical climate underpinned by strained US-China ties and a changing of the guard in the White House.
But analysts say American producers and interest groups are keen on hedging risks and stabilising business by using platforms such as high-profile exhibitions, as US farm exports drop rapidly when China slows its buying.
For the second year running, a US agricultural pavilion has been set up at one of China’s largest import-oriented trade shows, with more than 30 food producers and trade associations attending.
Many are returning for the second year, after the debut of the US agricultural pavilion in 2023 yielded orders worth more than US$500 million. The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, one of the co-organisers of the pavilion, said the expectations were higher this year.
“Last year, we reached our forecast, and we hope to have more business than last year. With more companies participating at this year’s CIIE, we can do even better,” said AmCham Shanghai president Eric Zheng.
It is Washington’s China policies that will determine the fortune and fate of US agricultural exporters
Numerous China-anchored US exporters, however, have been grappling with steep drops in terms of value and shipments since last year. In an August report, the US Department of Agriculture cut its 2024 forecast on exports to China to US$24 billion, pointing to China’s waning appetite for US farm products, China’s import diversification and growing competition.
Xin Qiang, a professor with Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies in Shanghai, said the US pavilion is a show of goodwill to keep trade flowing – a counterbalance by related US business sectors against Washington’s hardening position on China.
“American farmers share unease about more bilateral tit-for-tat [actions], given their reliance on China,” Xin said, pointing to their fears of losing out on the lucrative China market.