Suspicious bets on Maduro’s removal raise eyebrows as user nets over US$400,000
User set up account on online prediction platform eight days ago and made series of wagers predicting US action against Venezuela
The anonymous user set up an account on the platform eight days ago and then placed a series of wagers worth nearly US$34,000 before the assault, which had raked in profits of more than US$409,000 by Sunday afternoon, Polymarket data showed.
The wagers included predictions that Maduro would be out of office by January 31, as well as that the US would invoke war powers against Venezuela, send troops to the country, or invade by the same date, according to the platform’s records.
A US$32,537 bet on the Venezuelan president being ousted generated returns of more than 1,240 per cent for the user in less than a day, netting them over US$404,000. The account’s other, smaller wagers related to US military action against Venezuela posted returns of between 214 per cent and 985 per cent.
The trading activity has sparked widespread discussion on social media and fuelled speculation that the user had access to inside information, with one post raising concerns about potential insider trading receiving nearly 7.3 million views on X.
Betting related to Maduro leaving office surged on Polymarket in the minutes before the US strikes took place, causing the prediction’s likelihood score to shoot up, according to the platform’s pricing data.