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US-Venezuela conflict
EconomyGlobal Economy

If the US seizes control of Venezuela’s oil, who wins – and who loses?

Impact on China may be limited thanks to diversified import markets – but Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the EU could face setbacks

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El Palito refinery of the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is pictured, in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela, on February 10, 2024. Photo: Reuters
Mia Nurmamat
After US air strikes hit Caracas on Saturday, Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife were detained and transferred to the United States. US President Donald Trump later said his country planned to “run” Venezuela for the time being and take control of its oil reserves.

In the wake of the military operation, the Post examines the potential winners and losers in the global oil market.

Who are the winners?

The US stands to be the biggest beneficiary.

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One immediate implication could be greater American access to heavy crude. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 303 billion barrels, roughly 17 per cent of the global total, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Most of those reserves are concentrated in the Orinoco Belt in central Venezuela.

Much of that oil is extra-heavy crude: denser and more viscous than light grades, with higher levels of heavy hydrocarbons and impurities. It requires complex processing before being refined into products such as petrol, but could prove highly profitable for those equipped to process it.

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Most refineries along the US Gulf and West Coasts were built before the shale boom and were designed to process heavy, high-sulphur crude imported from countries such as Mexico – and Venezuela.

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