Before Trump’s Fed pick, a new clear favourite emerges for chair in race to succeed Powell
Betting markets show shiny odds for a former governor, with a prominent asset manager trailing a distant second as the announcement looms
Since returning to the White House a year ago, US President Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on the Federal Reserve. With the term of the current Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, set to end in May, Trump said he would announce his pick to replace Powell on Friday.
Speculation has intensified on prediction markets. On Polymarket and Kalshi, betting volumes on the question “Who will Trump nominate as Fed chair?” had respectively reached about US$294.24 million and US$81.61 million by Friday.
The South China Morning Post examines the leading contenders identified by bettors.
Kevin Warsh
Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has emerged as the clear front runner on prediction markets, with probabilities of winning exceeding 90 per cent on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Warsh began his career at Morgan Stanley as a mergers and acquisitions specialist. In 2006, after serving as an economic adviser in the George W. Bush White House, he was nominated to the Fed’s Board of Governors.
He served as a governor from 2006 to 2011 and was the central bank’s main representative to the Group of 20, playing a key role during the 2008 global financial crisis and seen as the central bank’s primary liaison to Wall Street.
Warsh has consistently stressed the Fed’s independence and argued that monetary policy should focus on controlling inflation and safeguarding financial stability rather than responding to political pressure – a stance that appears at odds with Trump’s preference for looser monetary policy.