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Why Trump's push for China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz may hurt trade talks
US president’s threat to delay summit with Xi adds uncertainty to Paris negotiations, analysts say
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US President Donald Trump’s reported threat that he may postpone a long-awaited visit to China – unless Beijing helps unblock the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz – may put the current trade talks in Paris at risk by sidelining earlier priorities and potential deals, analysts say.
As the US-Israeli war in Iran enters its third week and disrupts global energy markets, Trump has reportedly urged Beijing to send warships to help reopen the strait and ease oil shipments. About 20 per cent of the world’s daily oil consumption flows through the waterway, and Tehran’s effective closure has driven a surge in global fuel prices.
The Paris negotiations are widely seen as paving the way for a March 31 summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Any delay to that meeting would undermine the current talks, making their outcome largely irrelevant until the war eases, analysts warned.
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“They should make some deal before they can formally meet,” said Peter Shi, senior lecturer and head of supply chain management specialisation at Macquarie University in Australia. “[But] the Ukraine war and the war in Iran are not finished yet, so I think that will create a lot of uncertainties.”
The sixth round of trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies since the start of Trump’s second term ended on Sunday without any breakthroughs. And Zhao Xijun, a finance professor at Renmin University, said expectations would be low if the US leader postponed his trip to China.
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“Whether it’s about economic relations, technology ties or overall US-China ties ... [or] how to control disputes and reach consensus, it can’t move forward,” Zhao said. “When you negotiate, leaders from the two sides expect to reach something. If there’s no deal, it’s meaningless.”
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