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Warsh’s US Fed debuts with ‘hawkish’ inflation message and policy shift: Chinese analysts

A clearer focus on inflation and institutional changes could mark a watershed moment for the central bank, analysts say

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New US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the US Federal Reserve in Washington on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters
Sylvia Main Shanghai
Despite delivering the widely expected decision to hold rates steady, Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as US Federal Reserve chair carried a noticeably more hawkish message on inflation, according to Chinese analysts.

Alongside a more explicit focus on the inflation target, Warsh used the meeting to scale back the Fed’s reliance on forward guidance and announced five task forces to review the central bank’s policy framework and communications – moves analysts said marked the start of a new era.

“This meeting delivered two key messages: first, while the policy rate remained unchanged, the tone turned noticeably hawkish,” analysts at Guangzhou-based Yuekai Securities, led by chief economist Luo Zhiheng, said in a note on Thursday.

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“Second, Warsh used his debut statement as a starting point to initiate an institutional adjustment of the Fed’s communications paradigm … to usher in a new chapter for the central bank.”

The comments came after the Fed maintained its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent on Wednesday in a unanimous 12-0 vote by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

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In a notably shorter post-meeting statement than those during Jerome Powell’s tenure, the Fed said inflation had remained “elevated” relative to its 2 per cent target, citing supply shocks that had driven price increases in energy and other sectors.
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