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China food security
EconomyGlobal Economy

Global farming, Chinese food imports at stake as El Nino threatens drought

Sharpest risks to occur in the Global South, with countries facing conflict and economic stress being the worst hit: United Nations’ FAO

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An aerial view of barren farmland on the banks of the Cipamingkis River in Indonesia's West Java province. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
Ralph JenningsandMia Nurmamat
A dry, hot El Nino climate pattern is threatening agriculture in much of the world, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said, while an analyst warned of a possible challenge to China’s food supplies.

The “sharpest” El Nino risks would occur in parts of Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa and Latin America, according to the FAO, which noted their pastureland faced more than a 50 per cent chance of drought over the coming months.

El Nino cycles can destroy harvests, kill livestock and force people to migrate in search of food and water, the FAO added. It warned that countries already in the throes of “conflict and economic stress” would be even worse off.

“This isn’t like previous El Ninos,” FAO natural resources officer Jorge Alvar-Beltran said in a statement on Monday. “The planet is much warmer today, and with conflict and food insecurity widespread, this new phase will hit hardest in places that are already vulnerable and have limited coping capacity.”

The UN body did not mention China as a country at risk. However, it would be affected if grain production withered overseas, said Alfredo Montufar-Helu, China-based managing director at Ankura Consulting.

“Certainly if El Nino leads to severe droughts in certain regions of the world, thereby affecting their food security, you will see an increase in the demand for grains from those regions most affected and they will try to import whatever they cannot supply domestically,” he said.

Since 2004, China has been a net importer of agricultural products overall and today it imports more food commodities – including grains – than any other country, according to a 2025 study from the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

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