China braces as new US global tariffs loom: fresh trade war or managed friction?
With US expected to pivot to more durable tariffs under Section 301, analysts expect bilateral guard rails to keep tensions from spiralling

China could soon face a tariff framework that gives the United States greater room to escalate trade measures and impose more targeted levies as Washington’s temporary duties near expiry, though analysts said the immediate effect of the proposed rates is likely to be limited.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the next round of tariff enforcement could cover economies accounting for about 99 per cent of US imports. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Tuesday, he noted that “we expect to see some action soon” but declined to provide an implementation timeline.
“The shift to a more flexible Section 301 legal basis gives the administration greater scope for targeted, expandable actions compared to broad emergency tariffs,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis.
“Consistent with President Trump’s reciprocal trade approach and past record, including the phase one negotiations, we should anticipate further measures – potentially higher rates or sector-specific duties – if trade imbalances, IP issues or national security concerns persist,” she said.