In 2014, Xie Zhenhua and John Kerry worked on a US-China climate statement and rallied others to sign the Paris Agreement. The two sides have identified the many areas for collaboration, including on emerging technologies.
Besides the difficulty of insulating potential areas of collaboration, it is unclear what and how much climate cooperation the two can deliver. As a result, bilateral progress will be volatile, modest and incremental at best.
Funding stimulus measures through higher corporate and personal taxes may hit US equities. While technology, communication services and health care sectors may be adversely affected, industrial, energy and materials sectors stand to gain.
America’s abiding strategic objectives have been relatively consistent since the Cold War’s end. While China remains a top priority, expect Iran, Afghanistan, North Korea, Taiwan and the South China Sea to also feature prominently.
The US president has underestimated the complexities of outcompeting China and overestimated allies’ capacity to recommit to US leadership. Moreover, Congress remains deadlocked, economic recovery is uncertain and Donald Trump could seek the presidency again in 2024.
So much has so far gone right, but there is a nervous recognition that much in America remains wrong. Democratic defeats in the 2022 midterm elections could block Biden’s reformist agenda and lay the foundations for a Trump revenge in 2024.
American President Joe Biden has quickly reversed the environmental policies of his Republican predecessor Donald Trump, who denied the reality of climate change. What’s to stop the next Republican president from overturning Biden’s?