This year’s Oscars take place on March 27, after a strange awards season that has seen the beleaguered Golden Globes held behind closed doors and even the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences making missteps. Cutting eight categories from the live telecast has proved unpopular, while asking audiences to vote on Twitter for the year’s popular movie – rather than forge a new category to recognise what that might be – was a PR gaffe. Still, in a year when Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is the film to beat, it’s an intriguing playing field – a perfect line-up to play a game of predict the Oscars. Best picture Who will win: The Power of the Dog Jane Campion’s return to feature-film making after a 12-year absence has been rightly hailed ever since she won best director in Venice last September. This elegant tale set in 1920s Montana has all the momentum, with 12 Oscar nominations overall. Only Kenneth Branagh’s well-liked memoir Belfast has a shot at blocking its path to the main prize. Netflix films, Marvel hits: how to stream Oscar nominees in Hong Kong Who should win: The Power of the Dog Most films will have their supporters – West Side Story , Licorice Pizza and Dune especially – but it’s hard to argue against Campion’s best film since The Piano . Best actor Who will win: Will Smith ( King Richard ) He’s twice been nominated for best actor, including for Ali , in which he shone as the heavyweight boxer. But the feeling now is that, surely, it’s his time with King Richard and his infectious take on Richard Williams, father to tennis legends Venus and Serena Williams. Still, he’ll be superstitious: when he was up for Ali , he lost out to Training Day ’s Denzel Washington – the very same actor, nominated for The Tragedy of Macbeth , he’s up against this time. Who should win: Andrew Garfield ( Tick, Tick … Boom! ) It’s been a stellar year for Garfield, from his duplicitous preacher in The Eyes of Tammy Faye to his triumphant web-slinging return in Spider-Man: No Way Home . Yet it’s here, as Rent creator Jonathan Larson, that he gives one of the most heart-on-the-sleeve performances of his career. Best actress Who will win: Jessica Chastain ( The Eyes of Tammy Faye ) Like Will Smith, Chastain has twice been nominated before, and lost. But the Academy loves a transformation – and her work in The Eyes of Tammy Faye , as the titular televangelist, was physically impressive and, on a human level, empathetic. Nearest rival, The Lost Daughter ’s Olivia Colman, may find her recent win for The Favourite counts against her. Who should win: Kristen Stewart ( Spencer ) Not unlike Chastain, Stewart’s transformation as Princess Diana in Spencer was all-consuming, and there were points where she just dissolved into the role. Best supporting actress Who will win: Ariana DeBose ( West Side Story ) It seems written in the stars. Sixty years after Rita Moreno won the same prize for playing Anita in West Side Story , DeBose can repeat the feat for Spielberg’s remake. Her livewire turn as the character is every bit as explosive as Moreno’s was. Who should win: Kirsten Dunst ( The Power of the Dog ) Gaslit by Benedict Cumberbatch’s rancher brother-in-law, Dunst’s turn as the fragile Rose is sublime, and if The Power of the Dog gains favour in other categories, she could find herself at that podium. Best supporting actor Who will win: Kodi Smit-McPhee ( The Power of the Dog ) Australia’s Kodi Smit-McPhee is splendid as Rose’s troubled teenaged son in The Power of the Dog , giving a surprise performance that steals the third act. However, he faces strong competition from another first-time nominee, Belfast ’s Ciarán Hinds, whose fine work as a tender grandfather more than merits a crack at the Oscar. Who should win: Troy Kotsur ( CODA ) The first deaf male actor to be nominated for an Academy Award, Kotsur’s turn as a fisherman and father-of-two in CODA is astounding. Rarely has sign language been used so potently on screen. Best adapted screenplay Who will win: Maggie Gyllenhaal ( The Lost Daughter ) Since taking the best screenplay prize in Venice, Gyllenhaal’s sly look at motherhood has gained a faithful following from critics and industry folk. Expect that to carry through here, though Jane Campion’s adaptation of Thomas Savage’s novel could derail her. Who should win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe ( Drive My Car ) Already the best screenplay winner from Cannes , Hamaguchi and Oe’s take on the Haruki Murakami short story about an actor-director in emotional stasis is as elegant as it is literate. The Academy ought to recognise that. Best original screenplay Who will win: Kenneth Branagh ( Belfast ) Branagh has never won an Oscar – despite becoming, with this year’s three nominations, the only person nominated in seven different categories over his career. But the Academy will surely take the chance to anoint him for his sentimental, semi-autobiographical script for Belfast . Who should win: Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier ( The Worst Person in the World ) Trier’s The Worst Person in the World , co-written with regular writer Eskil Vogt, has captivated hearts ever since it played in Cannes, and won Renate Reinsve best actress. This study in life, love, and death is one of the most beautifully written scripts of the year. Best director Who will win: Jane Campion Jane Campion’s only previous best director nomination, in 1994, saw her lose out to Steven Spielberg (for Schindler’s List ). She finds herself in the running with him again, though she must surely be the favourite for The Power of the Dog . Ryusuke Hamaguchi ’s nomination for Drive My Car is marvellous, but he’s the outlier here. Who should win: Steven Spielberg The real answer might be Denis Villeneuve, who wasn’t even nominated for his stellar work on Dune . But of the nominees, Spielberg’s technically brilliant West Side Story demonstrates sheer cinematic wonder. Best animated feature Who will win: Encanto Disney’s 60th animated feature, Encanto is the sure-fire favourite. It took US$248 million at the global box office, won prizes at the Golden Globes and National Board of Review, and Lin-Manuel Miranda’s accompanying songs (notably We Don’t Talk About Bruno ) have become the soundtrack for many households this past winter. Who should win: Flee Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s tale of an Afghan refugee is a true original. Although it may fare better in the other categories it’s competing in (documentary, international feature), the film is such a unique use of the medium, it fully deserves to claim this category. It won’t, of course. Best international feature film Who will win: Drive My Car Of its four nominations, the “foreign film” category is surely where Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour epic will be rewarded. There’s tough competition from the likes of Flee , The Worst Person in the World and Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God , but Hamaguchi’s film has a groundswell of support that should see it home. Who should win: Drive My Car Like The Power of the Dog taking best picture, it’s impossible to vote against Hamaguchi’s rigorous, intellectual, moving film. Want more articles like this? Follow SCMP Film on Facebook