In the event that some of the DSE exams are scrapped because of a sudden surge in coronavirus infections, the authorities will adopt a new assessment mechanism. This will include credits for a candidate’s secondary school performance and take into account the records of previous candidates from the same school, according to So Kwok-sang, secretary general of the Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority.

This proposed assessment mechanism is similar to the approach Edexcel and CAIE is now using to calculate students’ grades in the absence of examinations. The final grade would be a composite grade, based on teacher assessment of each student, the ranking of each student and the historical performance of schools in these examinations.

The Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (Ofqual), a government body that regulates examinations, assessments and qualifications in England, has declared every individual English school an examination centre. These “centres” will award each student the grade they “would most likely have received had the exams taken place”.

Ofqual advises these should be “holistic judgments” and informed by evidence including homework, mock exams and non-exam assessments. Teachers will then rank each student in each subject in comparison to other students taking the same subject at the centre.

Ofqual proposes a “statistical standardisation” to ensure this summer’s grades are free of bias. This standardisation will draw from the historical outcomes of each school; the prior attainment of this year’s students and those in previous years within each centre; and the historical national grade distribution for each subject.

Ofqual has pointed out that because of this “standardisation model”, the final grades students receive will “not necessarily be the same” as the grades presented by the student’s school or “centre”.

While this method of formulating a grade is probably the best solution in the current situation, an individual student’s grade will actually be a percentile rank that describes their performance in comparison to the performance of students in the cohort, rather than the absolute scores that have been used for past exams in Hong Kong.

This rank-based standardisation system – known as “norm-referencing” and likely to be used if secondary education diploma exams are cancelled in Hong Kong – will tell which students perform at an average level, which students do better, and which do worse. This could be disheartening to some top performers.

Take the example of one brilliant Year 11 student at the French International School in Happy Valley. A clearly exceptional student both in ability and application, she obtained all A* grades in her mock examinations earlier this year and in most of her school assessments over her two-year International General Certificate of Secondary Education (IGCSE) course conducted by CAIE. Norm-referencing will not indicate whether students like her have exceeded a specific standard or criterion.

Furthermore, since the standardisation process is based on empirical data from previous cohorts at each “centre”, only a percentage of students can reach the highest grade of an A* or the new Grade 9. Schools are essentially competing with each other and boards will have to make difficult decisions.

If a school historically had eight students attaining an A* in biology, will a similar number of its candidates still achieve an A*? What about eight students deserving of an A* in a new, or lower band, school – will they get the grades assessed by teachers? Or will only four students get an A* because the results have been capped by the proportion of grades awarded in previous years?

The grade-awarding process has never been an exact science. Grades that are awarded need to elicit public confidence as they have an enormous impact on the outcomes of secondary education. They certify student achievement and allow the performance of schools to be tracked with respect to imparting an education to our students.

CAIE uses an amalgam of criterion and norm-referencing, and grade boundaries are determined by combining professional judgments of learning with statistical evidence.

Andrew Watts, director of the Cambridge Assessment Network, said early examinations required the recall of facts, often from set books or periods of history, or sections of the Bible. Over the decades, exams have evolved to ask questions which enable students to demonstrate their ability to analyse information and to apply their knowledge and understanding, as well as recall concepts and principles.

Let’s hope the grades that this year’s exam-going classes will receive, without board exams, are a reflection of this evolution.

Anjali Hazari is a retired international school biology educator who has taught for three decades in Hong Kong and has received several accolades in her teaching career. She continues to tutor and write extensively on education policy and practice.