The End of Hong Kong?

On July 1, 2047, Hong Kong runs out. Just 33 years from now the promise that Hong Kong’s “previous capitalist system and way of life shall remain unchanged for 50 years” comes to a close. The Sino-British Joint Declaration, which promised Hong Kong “a high degree of autonomy” and “an independent judiciary” may no longer be legally binding. Changes to the Basic Law, which outlines the city’s political, legislative and legal structure and provides protection for fundamental human rights, will become possible. In other words: Beijing can do whatever the hell they want.

That doesn’t seem to be an idea that makes many people happy, as we’ve learned all the more clearly over the past week. And it’s not that far away, either. Are you thinking of buying a flat in the next 10 years? Your mortgage will likely overlap with the 2047 transition. The last time Hong Kong faced being taken over by China, it led to a confidence crisis and thousands fled the city. Since 1997 then Hongkongers have developed far more of their own fractious identity: proudly individual and proudly resistant to mainland interference. In the 1980s Hong Kong was a global powerhouse that the rest of China could only dream of—these days the motherland is home to the world’s second largest economy. This time around, there’s no sanction, no bargaining chip. What are we going to negotiate with three decades down the line?

If the way things played out before 1997 is any indication, people will start getting worried about land and political instability around 2030—just 16 years away—and we’ll likely have a good grasp of Hong Kong’s fate a few years after that. But what is actually going to happen? Will there be tanks in the streets, or will everything just float along like before? Here are the four most likely scenarios.

What happens? Beijing agrees to extend the Basic Law as it currently stands. “One country, two systems” continues to operate in Hong Kong. July 1, 2047 will just be another day. Why could it happen? This goes back to how people interpret the original purpose of “one country, two systems.” Instead of an expiration date, there’s an argument to be made that the 50-year window was actually chosen for symbolic purposes, not as a ticking time bomb. Speaking during a 1988 international conference on the future of China, Deng Xiaoping—the statesman who masterminded the “one country, two systems” concept—said as much. “50 years is only a vivid way of putting it. Even after 50 years, our policy will not change either. That is, for the first 50 years it cannot be changed and for the second there will be no need to change it.”

What are the chances? Albert Chen Hung-yee, the Chan Professor in Constitutional Law at HKU and a member of the Committee for the Basic Law, says that renewal of the Basic Law is a real possibility. “If things are working well in the period of about 10 years before 2047, people will want the arrangement to continue,” Chen says. “It depends on whether Hong Kong can continue to be politically stable and economically prosperous, because stability and prosperity are the original aims of ‘one country, two systems.’”

Beijing’s attitude since taking control of Hong Kong points to a considerable reluctance to make big changes to the Basic Law, says Danny Gittings, an ex-journalist who’s now a legal academic at HKU and the author of “Introduction to the Hong Kong Basic Law,” which contains a chapter investigating what might happen post-2047. “The central authority has been reluctant to meddle in the details of the Basic Law, except for urgent matters like electoral reform,” says Gittings. “It’s been 17 years since the handover, and there has been no amendment to the main text of the Basic Law.”