Climate change: how long do we really have to save the planet from catastrophe?
- Scientists cannot seem to agree on the numbers, but there is a consensus on one thing: the human race is in imminent danger
- Mainstream media also cause confusion, neglecting to connect increasingly chaotic weather patterns with human behaviour
12 years to save the planet. Warming of 3 degrees Celsius, or perhaps 5 degrees if we don’t take drastic action now. A sea-level rise of 0.3 metres by 2100 – or is it three metres?
Just about every article you read on climate change is full of numbers, starting with 1.5 degrees, which, we are told, represents the maximum temperature rise we can allow and still avoid the worst effects of global warming.
Except it isn’t – and that is just the beginning of the confusion. No two numbers from climate-change studies ever seem to agree. Even climate scientists are often baffled by the figures other researchers come up with.
Climate-change deniers seize on the uncertainty as evidence that the underlying science is wrong. It is not. It is just complex, as real-world science is. The biggest uncertainty by far is us and what we will do over the next century. And the uncertainty cuts both ways: we could be underestimating how fast the world will warm and what the effects will be.
So what numbers can and can’t we be certain of?
