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How coronavirus has made home buying in the US, Europe, Australia and other places even harder

Luxury markets in Australia, such as this one in Toorak, are seeing fewer listings. Photo: Marshall White

Home sales have collapsed in many international markets because of the coronavirus, and it appears many vendors are deserting the market, too.

When the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in America surveyed its members in April, it found that 56 per cent of owners had pulled their homes from the market, citing coronavirus as the reason.

This is despite the fact that NAR's report suggests buyers are still willing to commit: a quarter of property agents with clients putting contracts on homes had at least one do so without physically seeing the property.

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For those clients, the median number of homes toured – either virtually or in person – before putting a contract on a home was just three, compared to typically nine homes in 2019.

Pulling back is more likely to occur among vendors who were thinking of selling, but had decided not to, according to the California Association of Realtors. Their data suggests this is occurring in 45 per cent of cases.

The median number of homes toured – either virtually or in person – before putting a contract on a home was just three, compared to typically nine homes in 2019. Photo: Marshall White

In Melbourne, Australia, upmarket buyer's agent David Morrell says the coronavirus “has smashed the top end”. 

“Vendors are retreating, absolutely,” he says. “Any person selling at the moment has to be doing it for the 'three d's' – divorce, death or downsizing – or now there could be a fourth one, debt.”

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Even people thinking of selling are asking, “Why would I do it now?”, when there are no inspections allowed, says Morrell. “To be frank, I would advise them to have a Panadol and a good lie down for a month or two, and don't sell unless you have to.” He is talking about the very top end of the market, in luxury, blue-chip locations such as Toorak and South Yarra. For properties below A$3 million (US$653,270), the market is “still intense”.

Above that price threshold, buyer demand is as strong as ever. “We can't get enough houses,” Morrell laments. “Our clients are looking at buying land as gold bricks, or they're starting to buy generational. They'll say, get me three terraces in South Yarra for my kids – but where could you find three terraces?”

However, in the United Kingdom, property platform Zoopla reports no mass withdrawal of homes. Newly signed contracts are down by 70 per cent, but Richard Donnell, Research & Insight director, Zoopla, says this is on par with December 2018, at the height of Brexit uncertainty.

1 Denham Place in Toorak, Australia. Photo: Marshall White

“Demand for housing began to fall two weeks ahead of the [March 24] lockdown as consumers responded to the emerging pandemic,” he says. “Since then, the fall in demand has bottomed out and is now consistent with levels recorded at Christmas 2018, with households expressing interest in homes even though they cannot view them at present.”

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Weaker demand has resulted in fewer properties coming to market, suggesting some who hadn't yet committed to list were opting to wait and see. However, the number of homes for sale per property agent is just 1 per cent lower than on March 7.

Donnell believes most vendors are leaving their homes on the market “as the cost of doing so is low and many will be hoping to find buyers when restrictions lift”. There are also those for whom working from home has motivated their decision to trade up, he adds.

A newly built villa in La Zagaleta, one of the most exclusive residential communities in Europe. Photo: Terra Meridiana

Over in Europe, despite Spain being one of the hardest hit areas by the coronavirus, agent Adam Neale has found that, if anything, “at present we have seen more enquiries to list properties than previously”. “Ninety-nine per cent of our owners are non-residents, so to a large extent our market is dictated by what happens economically in the resident market of the owner,” says Neale, director, Terra Meridiana Real Estate. “In the unique case of the coronavirus, [a decision to sell] might be dependent upon the period of lockdown they have to endure, and their business, employment or financial situation.”

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However, going forward, Neale expects some vendors to be reluctant to list their homes in Spain lest they look like distressed sellers. “In the last financial crisis, distressed sellers had the effect of a rotten apple in a barrel of apples – they infected the whole marketplace,” he explains.

“If you are trying to sell a luxury penthouse for €1 million (US$1.8 million) and a distressed seller puts their penthouse on the market for €700,000, this will impact your chances of selling regardless of whether your property is superior. Those who can afford to wait will choose to sit out the market until the pandemic comes to an end.”

In France, Jack Harris, associate, Knight Frank, says the few properties removed from the market have been by owners wanting to spend more time at their holiday home in the future.

Harris says: “We had an incident where a seller decided not to accept an offer that they would previously have accepted. The seller has a principal residence in a European city and the current situation has reaffirmed their desire to have a home in the countryside. As a result, they have decided to keep their south of France home.”

Bill Thomson, chairman of the Knight Frank network of offices in Italy, sees a similar trend there. “The only example we have of [vendors retreating] is the delayed launch of a major new development of flats in central Florence,” he says.

“Our view with the developer was that it wasn't the right time to be going to market, and we are holding back the launch until post-lockdown.”

Thomson expects more vendors may pull back if price reductions eventuate. “Currently, this isn't the case. But Italians tend not to sell if they are going to see price cuts to their homes – if this does happen, some will pull out, preferring to sell when the market recovers.”

1 Denham Place in Toorak, Australia. Photo: Marshall White

In New Zealand, although strict lockdown measures put the brakes on the property market, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's decision to “go hard and go early” has seen one of the world's best examples of successful containment of the virus. With restrictions already being eased, Bindi Norwell, chief executive at Reinz, points to the market's quick recovery following the global financial crisis of 2008.

Now, as then, global events put an end to an extremely buoyant period. “March marked four months in a row where every region in the country saw an annual increase in median prices,” she says. “It also marked a record median price for the country at NZ$665,000 (US$406,750), with record median prices in eight regions including Auckland, and 12 out of 16 regions experiencing double-digit annual median price increases.”

1 Denham Place in Toorak, Australia. Photo: Marshall White

Talking to agents around the country, Norwell has not heard of any significant numbers of people pulling their property for sale. “But for those who have decided after nearly five weeks of being locked in their 'bubble' that they don't like their house any more, they may be desperate for the chance to move, so there may be some great opportunities for those wanting to buy and sell in the coming months,” she says.

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Buying guide

What you can buy for €2.9 million in Spain: 

An opulent, newly built villa in La Zagaleta, one of the most exclusive residential communities in Europe, boasts panoramic views of the countryside, mountains and the Mediterranean.

Set across three levels, including an entire entertainment floor, the home has eight bedrooms, nine bathrooms and landscaped grounds, as well as an infinity pool and jacuzzi.

What you can buy for A$12.5 million – A$13.5 million in Australia:

A bespoke Melbourne mansion in Toorak by architect Ian Archibald, delivering contemporary family luxury in a premier location close to schools, High Street shops, restaurants and trams.

The home offers five bedrooms, seven bathrooms, a cinema, gym, recreation room with bar, a temperature-controlled wine cellar/tasting room and a five-car garage.

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Owners in California, France, Spain and other usually hot property areas are pulling homes from the market as the global pandemic continues