Can Exultant, a likely Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup racing favourite, defy history and actually win?
- No horse has claimed the Longines Hong Kong Vase and then gone on to secure victory in the Gold Cup since Indigenous in 1998-99
- Northern Superstar and the brothers Glorious Forever and Time Warp are likely to pose the biggest threats in Sunday’s race
Exultant will have to defy two decades of history if he is going to triumph in the Group One Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup.
No horse has completed the Longines Hong Kong Vase and Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup double – of winning both races – since Indigenous in 1998-99.
However, there are high hopes for Exultant to buck that trend this year, after having won the Hong Kong Vase last December.
There has always been a strong relationship between the Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) and the Gold Cup going back to the introduction of the Hong Kong Invitational Cup, the first iteration of HKIR, in 1988.
So ahead of Sunday’s Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup, it is tempting to look at the results of the HKIR for answers.
Why? A quick look at the numbers makes a good case: of the past 29 winners of the Gold Cup, all but six raced in a Group One on HKIR day.
Yet as the Group Ones of the HKIR vary in distances, the most obvious comparison would be to look at the Hong Kong Cup, a 2,000m race – the same length as the forthcoming Gold Cup.
Looking at that race alone, the correlation is even stronger: in the past 12 editions of the Gold Cup, the winner has also finished in the top five of the HKIR HK Cup 10 times.
Going by that measure, it suggests there are only three possible winning hopes for the Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup race on Sunday – Glorious Forever, Time Warp and Northern Superstar (with the other two runners in the top five visitors from Japan).
However, Exultant is defying those odds as a likely race favourite. The horse comfortably beat the brothers Glorious Forever and Time Warp – winner of the Gold Cup last season – at the Centenary Vase.
That leaves race enthusiasts with the question, is this the year that will upset the trend?
The Tony Cruz-trained Exultant has gone to another level this term, winning the Vase (2,400m) and the Centenary Vase (1,800m) on his last two starts.
The horse has established himself as the second-best horse in Hong Kong, trailing only superstar miler Beauty Generation.
The five-year-old excels at staying the distances – he has never missed a place in any of his seven starts over 2,000m or further in Hong Kong. It also helps having Cruz in your corner – he has won the Gold Cup twice as a jockey and four times as a trainer.
By those measures, Exultant looks the horse to beat – even if recent history is against him.
“He’s got a great set of lungs and he’s definitely improved this season,” regular jockey Zac Purton said.
“He’s taken himself to another level and he’s racing with a lot of confidence. Hopefully, he can continue to do so.”
Exultant is not the only horse trying to defy the recent bias towards the Hong Kong Cup, as the likes of Pakistan Star and Eagle Way both came through the Vase as well.
Pakistan Star is a fascinating case, a horse who started his career as an internet sensation, turned into a problem child – who once stopped during a race – before redeeming himself and fulfilling his enormous potential with two Group One victories.
The enigmatic gelding has not been able to recapture those peaks this term, failing to place in any of his five starts.
Yet the tantalising thing about Pakistan Star is that he is capable of anything. He could win by five lengths, he could refuse to run – or anything in between.
Not only does that make life tricky for punters, it is a challenge for his jockey, of which there have been many.
Over his 21-start career, six different riders have been aboard Pakistan Star, with Australian Tommy Berry flying in from Sydney to take the ride in the Gold Cup.
Berry is one-for-one on the gelding, winning the Group One Champions & Chater Cup in May.
“Pakistan Star has quality on his side,” Berry said. “The best thing I can do is come out as quiet as I can and just try to get him to switch off.”
Pakistan Star came sixth in the Hong Kong Vase, finishing a length and a quarter behind Eagle Way, another Gold Cup contender.
The John Moore-prepared six-year-old flashed home to finish fourth in the Vase, but he stamped himself as a genuine top-liner when he won the Group Two Jockey Club Cup in November.
That was his most recent start over the Gold Cup distance of 2,000m and he comfortably accounted for Exultant, Glorious Forever, Pakistan Star and Time Warp.
They will all be among his rivals on Sunday, so if things pan out he can make his presence felt.
“Eagle Way has just been progressing … 2,000m or more is where he excels,” Moore, who has won an astonishing 11 Gold Cups, said.
“He’s another horse, like Beauty Generation, who has really hit his straps this season. We’ve tweaked a few little things and what we’ve tweaked has been the right thing.”
History says running in one of the Group Ones during HKIR is a key pointer to finding the winner of the Gold Cup.
It is not essential to have won a Mile, Cup or Vase – only five horses have managed to salute in one of the December features and go on to win the Gold Cup – but coming through those races is important.
Most of the main contenders tick that box, which means it should be one heck of a contest.