Hong Kong's dependency ratio is even worse than officials are saying
Statistician warns that Hong Kong's latest dependency figures spell trouble, and city isn't acting fast enough against a shrinking workforce and ageing population
When the government gave its population projections last month, social statistics expert Paul Yip Siu-fai had cause to bristle.
He spotted a misleading interpretation of the dependency ratio - the number of dependents, namely children or the elderly, in relation to the total population. The measure may seem trivial to some, but Yip says any inaccuracy in this figure will have dire consequences for Hong Kong's future.
The Census and Statistics Department projected that the dependency ratio would increase from 333 dependents per 1,000 workers in 2011 to 437 dependents per 1,000 workers by 2021.
The department's deputy commissioner, Leslie Tang Wai-kong, seemed to play down any problems associated with the new figures at a news conference on July 31. He compared the latest numbers to 1981 levels, when the dependency ratio was 455:1,000, and said the rate would not get any worse.
High dependency ratios usually set off alarm bells, since they place a burden on governments and workers to provide for the needs or pensions of the economically dependent. Still, Tang stressed that based on the official estimates, "we still have time to prepare".
Yip, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, where he specialises in demographics along with suicide research, says grave social problems are looming.