One is a former prime minister known for his nationalistic views. A second is a hawkish former defence chief. And a third is the son of Tokyo’s outspoken governor whose proposal to buy and develop a cluster of uninhabited islands claimed by both China and Japan has set off a territorial furore between the two countries.
A look at the top candidates to lead Japan’s main opposition party — and potentially to become Japan’s next prime minister — suggests that Japan may soon get a more nationalist government. That could ratchet up already tense relations with China and South Korea over territorial disputes that have flared in recent weeks and brought anti-Japanese demonstrations to dozens of Chinese cities.
There is little sign that Japanese have grown more nationalistic, but the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is expected to get clobbered in elections that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda says he will call soon. Voters are angry over Noda’s push to double the sales tax and his party’s failure to bring promised change to Japan’s stodgy politics.
That leaves the opposition Liberal Democratic Party poised to regain the power it lost three years ago after decades of being Japan’s dominant political force. Polls suggest the LDP would win the most seats in the more powerful lower house of parliament, although probably not a majority, so it would need to forge a governing coalition to rule.
If the LDP regains power, its new leader, to be chosen in a Sept. 26 party vote, would almost certainly become the next prime minister.
The LDP is a conservative, pro-U.S. party with a traditional suspicion of China. The five candidates running for its top job, including former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have been taking turns calling on Japan to get tough with Beijing in the escalating dispute over the rocky outcroppings in the East China Sea called Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. The islands, near key shipping lanes and surrounded by rich fishing grounds and untapped natural resources, are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.