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Upside and downside seen in Beijing's move on Scarborough Shoal

A sensible move to lower risks or a sharp new tool to assert sovereignty - analysts in the Philippines are hoping for the former but fear the latter as they digest China's consolidation of its maritime agencies under one civilian command to patrol its disputed borders.

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Pagasa Island in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Photo: AFP
Raissa Robles

A sensible move to lower risks or a sharp new tool to assert sovereignty - analysts in the Philippines are hoping for the former but fear the latter as they digest China's consolidation of its maritime agencies under one civilian command to patrol its disputed borders.

The Philippine government - locked in a bitter territorial dispute with China over the Scarborough Shoal - has yet to comment officially on China's move to place its rapidly expanding coastguard-style forces under one roof, but analysts have noted both positives and negatives.

"There will be less risk of armed confrontation," said Aileen Baviera, professor of China studies and international relations and a former dean of the University of the Philippines' Asian Centre.

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She told the South China Morning Post that Beijing observers, such as the International Crisis Group, had earlier blamed China's "reactive assertiveness" on "too many agencies involved in the operations in the South China Sea; and part of the problem was, there was no co-ordination among them. Each had its own mandate they were trying to fulfil, apparently without sufficient guidance from the central government."

"This move might be seen positively if it would mean greater co-ordination among Chinese agencies on policy and not so much on operational issues," Baviera said.

This move might be seen positively if it would mean greater co-ordination among Chinese agencies on policy and not so much on operational issues

The downside is that "a statement is being made that these are territorial waters and this is an assertion of sovereignty," she said.

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