Diaoyus dispute has parallels with World War I, says scholar
Military scholar sees parallels between Europe on the brink of Great War and the standoff between China and Japan over disputed islands
Tensions between Japan and China over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands, which Beijing claims as the Diaoyu isles, have eased in recent months, but there is still an underlying drive to enhance naval capabilities on both sides, according to a leading military analyst.
The ongoing tensions were underscored on Thursday when three Chinese government ships plied waters around the islands, the Japanese coastguard said.
The maritime surveillance vessels entered the 12-nautical-mile zone regarded as the territorial waters of Uotsurijima, one of the islands, in the East China Sea shortly before 8.30am, the coastguard said. The three vessels left the zone after about three hours.
"International escalation is the key element here and there is always the possibility of unintended consequences, as in August 1914," said Dr Alessio Patalano, of the department of war studies at King's College, London.
"In the Senkakus, there is the chance of the Japan Coast Guard and a Chinese maritime surveillance vessel clashing, or perhaps a Chinese turboprop aircraft downed in an accident," he said. "That could force the governments into the position of an escalation to war. But I think this is looking a lot less likely than it did a few months back.
"Last year, there were domestically generated problems because of political transitions in both countries," he pointed out. "Both countries had political capital invested in the situation and neither side could give in. Now, the transition has been completed in both Japan and China."