If a super typhoon hit Manila, damage would be as bad or worse

Manila is no stranger to powerful typhoons, but a storm like Haiyan could bring the Philippine capital to its knees.

Depending on the wind, such a typhoon could bring storm surges as high as five metres travelling inland at least a kilometre. Winds would batter buildings, tearing off roofs and smashing glass. Entire sections of the capital would be flooded.

Asked if it would be a catastrophe, Francis Tolentino, chairman of the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) said "yes", explaining it would have the same effect it had on Tacloban, which was virtually obliterated last week. "The same, although some structures (in Manila) are sturdier. It will also cause societal disruption."

Tacloban, 201 square kilometres in area, had 221,000 residents. Metropolitan Manila, a sprawling patchwork of 16 cities and one municipality, has up to 15 million people living in 638 square kilometres.

According to Dr Mahar Lagmay, director of Project NOAH (Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards), a visit by a Haiyan-class typhoon is a "possibility". He added: "It's Russian roulette."

Through its 442-year history, the metropolis has been battered by typhoons, destroyed several times by earthquakes and flooded regularly. Typhoons are part of life in Manila. Typically, a powerful storm brings floods, strong winds and power blackouts. Although Metro Manila has yet to suffer a category 5 storm like Haiyan, it's already had deadly warnings of what might happen.

In 2009, intense rains brought by Typhoon Ketsana submerged the metropolis, killing at least 250 people. The deluge was unprecedented: in low-lying areas, water was deep enough to submerge two-storey houses. Streets became raging torrents that drowned the unwary and swept vehicles away like toys. Large parts of the city were cut off and many residents spent days huddled on their rooftops.