Aukus: Australia’s nuclear submarine plan carries ‘enormous’ risks, report finds

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute warned that the bid to develop the submarines is the ‘most complex’ project the country has embarked upon

While it will help deter aggression from China or elsewhere, it will cost more than US$80 billion and take at least two decades, the report said

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Two Australian Collins class submarines at HMAS Stirling Royal Australian Navy base in Perth. The country will develop nuclear-powered submarines in their place. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 11:01am, 14 Dec 2021Updated: 11:09am, 14 Dec 2021

Australia’s bid to develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines will cost more than US$80 billion and take decades in the “most complex” project the country has ever embarked on, a study released on Monday warned.

The report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute – an influential Canberra-based think tank – said ownership of the hi-tech subs built with US or British know-how as part of the Aukus alliance would offer a major advantage in deterring aggression from China or elsewhere.

But it will also be a fiendishly difficult task requiring a step-change in Australia’s military and industrial capabilities.

It is “probably the largest and most complex endeavour Australia has embarked upon. The challenges, costs and risks will be enormous,” the think tank warned.

“It’s likely to be at least two decades and tens of billions of dollars in sunk costs before Australia has a useful nuclear-powered military capability.”

The project, announced last month, will make Australia the only non-nuclear weapons power to own nuclear-run submarines, which are capable of travelling quickly over long distances carrying long-range missiles and state-of-the-art underwater drones.