In reversal of fortunes, Myanmar’s Suu Kyi courts Thai junta
As now democratic Myanmar emerges from a half-century of military rule, its neighbour and second largest trading partner Thailand struggles to find path back to civilian rule
Aung San Suu Kyi leaves democratically led Myanmar this week for military-ruled Thailand on an official visit that highlights the changing fortunes of the Southeast Asian neighbours.
Myanmar, now governed by Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy after elections last year, is emerging from a half-century of military rule, while Thailand, Myanmar’s second largest trading partner after China with total trade last year valued at US$8.1 billion, is struggling to find a path back to civilian rule after the army seized power more than two years ago.
“The state visit will bring into relief an interesting reversal of political circumstances between the neighbouring countries but will be largely pragmatic in tone,” said Herve Lemahieu, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He said he expects talks to focus on trade, investment and migrant labour.
Thailand has taken the recent authoritarian Myanmar model, while they have taken Thailand’s heyday model of the 1980s
After decades of watching Thailand develop while it languished in isolation, Myanmar is now projected to have the fastest economic growth in Southeast Asia this year at 8.4 per cent, while Thailand is forecast to have some of the slowest growth at 3 per cent as it deals with the fallout of military rule and struggles to avoid the middle-income trap. Investors have taken note, with foreign direct investment in Myanmar surging to a record US$9.4 billion in the fiscal year ended March, while Thailand saw an almost 70 per cent plunge in applications last year.
“Thailand has taken the recent authoritarian Myanmar model, while they have taken Thailand’s heyday model of the 1980s,” said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital research at Kasikornbank Pcl in Bangkok. Myanmar was appealing due to its cheap labour, largely untapped consumer market and abundant natural resources, while in Thailand a lack of policy continuity was scaring off investors, he said.
Both countries are facing a constitutional conundrum, with Suu Kyi’s party campaigning to push the army out of politics and the generals in Thailand seeking voter approval in an August referendum for a draft document that would give them more power. For now Myanmar appears to have reached a working compromise between the army and civilians, while Thailand hasn’t.
