Analysis | Trump threw the Trans-Pacific Partnership into chaos. Now Canada is holding out, Japan is worried, and China may profit
‘If the TPP stays in limbo, other Asian countries may start bending towards China’
Against all odds, Japan managed in 2017 to keep the Trans-Pacific Partnership alive after the withdrawal of the United States, which would have been the biggest economy in the framework.
Tokyo has convinced 10 nations to commit to joining the pact.
But Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s hopes of signing the Pacific Rim trade pact soon now shaky following Canada’s last-minute request for a revision of the treaty.
Given the uncommitted attitude by Canada toward a fast implementation of the TPP in its current form, Japan and the nine other members could go on now without Canada, analysts said.
“There is a possibility that Canada could opt out of the pact. But if Canada, the second-largest economy among the 11 after Japan, also withdraws from the deal, the TPP is certain to further lose its attractiveness” such as for potential newcomers like Thailand, said Toshiki Takahashi, chief economist at Institute for International Trade and Investment.