As diplomatic rift between Japan and South Korea deepens, how hard can Seoul afford to push?

Relations between South Korea and Japan are at an all-time low and the rift between the two governments could yet deepen in 2019. In the event of further diplomatic unrest, though, Seoul appears the likely loser, given its economic exposure.

Bilateral relations were immediately strained when Moon Jae-in came to power in Seoul in May 2017. Tokyo was wary of his left-wing leanings and concerned that he would offer support and aid to the regime in North Korea. From Tokyo’s perspective, those fears have been borne out.

In November, Moon’s administration invalidated an agreement Tokyo made with his predecessor, Park Geun-hye, to resolve the long-running issue of Japan’s use of wartime sex slaves, referred to as “comfort women”.

Weeks later, South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled Japanese firms could be held liable for forced labour during the years of Tokyo’s colonial rule on the Korean peninsula. The ruling contradicted Tokyo’s position that all compensation claims had been settled by the 1965 treaty that normalised relations between the two countries.

The animosity has not subsided in the weeks since. The armed forces of both countries traded accusations over an encounter in the sea that separates the countries. Tokyo claimed a South Korean warship used its fire radar to lock onto a reconnaissance aircraft. Seoul countered that the Japanese aeroplane was flying too low as its ship attempted to help a North Korean vessel in distress and that it did not use its fire control radar.