Kim Jong-un prepares to deliver his annual speech to North Koreans: what clues might he reveal this year?
- Since reviving his grandfather’s tradition of personally delivering a New Year’s message, Kim’s speeches have touted ‘proud achievements’ and ‘miraculous victories’
- Kim’s comments on Tuesday will be examined for signs of his willingness to compromise with Trump and gain greater access to foreign capital
This year, 2018, was a year of surprises by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, from his decision to prioritise economic growth over weapons development to his handshake with US President Donald Trump.
But close observers would have seen clues to Kim’s policy shifts in his annual New Year’s Day address to the North Korean people. The events underscore the importance – and difficulty – in interpreting the speech, which often contains a few consequential changes buried in several thousands of words of propaganda-laden prose.
This New Year’s Day, Kim could signal whether the US and North Korea will continue with their rapprochement or drift back toward confrontation. To help parse his words, here’s a brief guide to what to watch.
Nuclear Weapons
Kim’s nuclear weapons claims often presage the coming year’s provocations, such as when he rang in 2017 by boasting that North Korea had “entered the final stage of preparation for the test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile”. Seven months later, he successfully launched a rocket that could reach Alaska. By year end, he had put the entire US in range.
The rapid advancements fuelled months of escalating threats and counterthreats, including Kim’s January 1, 2018, warning that “the nuclear button is on my office desk all the time”. Trump shot back on Twitter: “I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”
The New Year’s fireworks obscured a more important shift in Kim’s rhetoric – that he viewed the country’s nuclear-weapons project as complete. By April, he made that Korean Workers’ Party policy, ceasing nuclear tests and putting economic growth first.
The Economy
Since reviving his grandfather’s tradition of personally delivering a New Year’s message in 2013, Kim’s speeches have touted “proud achievements” and “miraculous victories” in economic development. The claims betray an underlying anxiety about North Korea’s status as one of the poorest countries in the world.