Kim Jong-un regime won’t last beyond 20 years, predicts North Korean diplomat who defected

Thae Yong-ho, who fled his post as the North’s deputy ambassador to Britain in 2016, said Kim Jong-un enjoys strong support from the senior military generals

But in two decades, when the younger generals come to power, Kim’s regime will go into decline, Thae predicts

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Thae Yong Ho, former North Korean deputy ambassador to Britain, speaking at a press conference in Tokyo. Photo: AFP

Published: 6:00pm, 20 Jun 2019Updated: 11:53pm, 20 Jun 2019

Kim Jong-un’s regime in North Korea could collapse within 20 years, but due to generational change within the country rather than external force or a coup, a prominent defector predicted on Thursday.

However, former diplomat Thae Yong-ho told reporters in Japan that the Kim regime would be safe for at least another decade as the young leader enjoys the loyalty of older generations around him.

“I think that maybe 10 years is too short. I don’t think the Kim Jong-un regime will collapse in 10 years. But I don’t think Kim Jong-un will continue another 20 years,” said Thae, who fled his post as the North’s deputy ambassador to Britain in August 2016. “If I am able to live another 20 or 30 years, I think I will be able to walk back to my hometown.”

However, he stressed that if Kim’s ironclad rule does come to an end, it will be due to a younger generation coming through rather than an organised coup d’etat or regime change from a foreign power such as the United States.

“At this moment, I think there cannot be any immediate people’s uprising or military initiative to remove Kim Jong-un, because the military is not very well organised for that kind of purpose. But I am looking for a change of generations,” Thae said.

The people around Kim are now aged between 60 and 80, however, and change could come when these loyal footsoldiers retire, he predicted.

“When the current generals are all retired and the generals now in their 30s, 40s or 50s are in power, I don’t think they will continue to share the same ideology of Kim Jong-un,” Thae said.