Up to 6,100 in Tokyo predicted to die in worst-case quake scenario
- A similar projection in 2012 estimated as many as 9,600 people would be killed, and about 304,000 homes and buildings damaged
- Reduction of 3,500 deaths is attributed to advances in the quake resistance of buildings and greater use of non-combustible materials in their construction
Up to around 6,100 people would die in the event a major earthquake hits the heart of Tokyo, the metropolitan government said in a report on Wednesday, revising down the estimate by around 30 per cent from a decade ago.
The report by the metropolitan government’s panel of earthquake experts attributes the reduction of about 3,500 people to advances in the quake resistance of buildings and the greater use of non-combustible materials in their construction.
The panel simulated significant earthquakes with different epicentres for the latest damage projection, and concluded that the largest death toll of up to 6,148 would result if a quake with a magnitude of 7.3 originated in the southern part of central Tokyo.
Such a temblor would register the maximum 7 on Japan’s seismic intensity scale, and rock some 60 per cent of Tokyo’s 23 wards with an intensity of upper 6 or above.
At an intensity of upper 6, many people find it impossible to remain standing or move without crawling. According to the meteorological agency, the jolts are strong enough to toss people through the air.
Of the estimated deaths, 3,209 would be caused by collapsed buildings and 2,482 by fires, the report said.