Can doubling the military budget make Japan more secure?

Tokyo aims to double its defence outlays over the next five years that could propel it from ninth in the world for military spending to a third spot behind the US and China

But analysts warn Japan may not achieve the results it is hoping for and the plan could appear ‘threatening to others in the region’

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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida inspects military equipment during a review in Tokyo. File photo: Reuters

Published: 11:42am, 26 Aug 2022

Japan is set to approve what could be its biggest increase in defence outlays since the end of the war, putting it on a path to become one of the world’s top military spenders.

In a defence ministry budget request for fiscal 2023 expected by the end of August, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling party is looking to double spending over five years from this year’s 5.4 trillion yen (US$39.5 billion).

Outlays of that scale could propel Japan from ninth in the world for military spending to a likely third spot behind the US and China, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, which tracks defence spending.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rumblings toward Taiwan and North Korea’s nuclear weapons have raised alarm in Japan and helped build public support for more spending. Those three nuclear-armed countries that neighbour Japan also possess three of the largest militaries in the world with a combined 5.5 million personnel, according to the World Bank. Japan’s military, known as the Self-Defence Forces, has around 231,000 personnel.

Beyond just buying pieces of hardware, Japan faces pressure to spend more on less visible items like pay rises, ammunition, spare parts and logistics.