Will South Korea get dragged into a Taiwan conflict? Yoon demurs, but there’s 28,500 reasons it might
- President Yoon Suk-yeol refused in an interview to be drawn on whether South Korea would help the US in the event of a conflict over Taiwan
- Yet officials have acknowledged the 28,500 US troops stationed on the peninsula mean it could easily be dragged into a crisis – as could Japan
China is South Korea’s largest economic partner, and Seoul could find itself on the literal front lines of any regional military conflict.
Is the US setting up an ‘Asia-style Nato’? North Korea thinks so
But when asked in the interview with CNN, first aired on Sunday, whether South Korea will help the US if mainland China attacks Taiwan, Yoon did not directly answer.
Last week the commander of US Forces Korea (USFK), General Paul LaCamera, said it was prudent to plan for all possibilities.
“What begins in one region spreads very quickly within the region and around the world,” LaCamera told a seminar hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) on Tuesday.
In response, South Korean vice-minister for defence Shin Beom-chul told broadcaster MBC that there had been no such discussions between Washington and Seoul.
“I can tell our citizens that we will ensure consultations would not move in a direction that undermines security on the Korean peninsula,” he said.
A USFK spokesman referred questions about its role in any regional conflict to the Indo-Pacific Command and the Pentagon, which did not immediately respond.
China solicits South Korea’s support amid rift with US over Taiwan
South Korea’s Ministry of Defence also did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Privately, many South Korean military officials expect they could once again face off against China, with memories of Beijing’s intervention on the side of the North in the Korean war, said one former South Korean general.
“They absolutely do not trust China, it’s something they feel in their bones,” he said.
In his confirmation hearing last year, LaCamera said he would seek to integrate USFK into “operational plans supporting US interests and objectives in the region”.
In 2006, amid Washington’s push to mobilise forces for the “war on terror”, Seoul agreed to “strategic flexibility” under which it would “understand”, but not necessarily support, the deployment of USFK units to other locations, as long as it is consulted, said Sungmin Cho, a professor at the Pentagon’s Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies in Hawaii.
“[It’s] still ambiguous,” he said. “This needs to be talked out between Seoul and Washington.”
Cho said North Korea could support China in a Taiwan conflict by launching an attack on South Korea, or simply use the conflict as a chance to push forward with its nuclear or missile development.
Taiwan tensions overshadow 50th anniversary of Sino-Japanese ties
USFK is heavily focused on land-based troops, which would be of limited use in a conflict that remains focused around the Taiwan Strait, said former General Park Cheol-kyun, who worked on international policy at South Korea’s Defence Ministry until May.
“You need the navy, air force, and intelligence assets, so most of the US forces that could contain or deter Chinese provocation are mostly in Japan,” he said, but added that the US-South Korea alliance can’t afford to ignore China’s role in the region.