They cautioned that it is far too early to tell whether she is a successor or simply a symbol used to assure citizens that nuclear weapons would protect children and be “monuments to be passed down to our descendants for generations”, as state media reported.

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter seen for first time at ballistic missile test

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter seen for first time at ballistic missile test

Chun Su-jin, the South Korean author of a book on North Korean women leaders, said the chance of the country’s elites welcoming Kim’s daughter as ruler is close to zero.

“It is not ready to welcome a leader of the other gender,” she said. “[Kim] is just staging a show that he is a loving father, not just a brutal dictator who shoots missiles.”

Others argue that despite North Korea’s deeply patriarchal society, gender may not disqualify a daughter or other woman from taking the reins.

Barring a sudden health problem that leads to his incapacitation or death, there is a fair amount of time before Kim, believed to be nearly 40, needs to consider a successor, said Michael Madden, director of North Korea Leadership Watch.

North Korea’s Kim reveals daughter for first time at missile launch

“That gives ample time for North Korea’s political culture to change and create the conditions for a female successor,” Madden said.

“Kim Jong-un belongs to a different generation than his grandfather and his father, and in some ways, he appears more receptive to change than his forefathers,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee of the 38 North research organisation.

If Kim has any sons, they could still have an advantage to continue the male-centric “Mount Paektu bloodline”, Lee said, referring to a volcano on the Chinese border that plays a central role in the ruling party’s mythology.

Women have held senior roles in North Korea over the years, but Kim Jong-il passed over several older daughters and sons to anoint Kim Jong-un, despite speculation at the time that his second daughter could be his successor, Madden noted.

The increased participation of North Korean women in elite politics does not necessarily indicate change to the broader social or political systems, 38 North said in a 2020 report.

Female North Korean defectors suffer prejudice in self-absorbed South

According to human rights activists, sexual and gender-based violence remains “endemic”, and Covid-19 border lockdowns and restrictions on previously growing market economies have been particularly hard on the women, who made up much of that workforce.

“In North Korea, gender is still important to be a leader,” said Hyun In-ae, a North Korean defector who now works at the Ewha Institute of Unification Studies in Seoul.

When rumours and speculation arose in 2020 about Kim Jong-un’s health, his sister was seen a possible place holder to take over the family dynasty until one of Kim’s children was old enough.

Believed to be in her early 30s, Kim Yo-jong is the leader’s only close relative with a public role in politics, spearheading a new, tougher campaign to put pressure on South Korea and in some cases operating as a “de facto” second in command, according to South Korean intelligence.

Based on previous leaders, any children will need education and on the job experience before they can be considered for supreme leadership, and in about 10 years we can expect her to have begun an official career, Madden said.

If, over the next decade, Kim’s daughter becomes closely associated with economic development and the missile and nuclear weapons programmes, then the North Korean political and military apparatus could position her as the promising next generation of the Paektu line, said Darcie Draudt of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.

“Bottom line: the bloodline, and military and economic development bona fides, matter more than gender in the fourth generation of the Kim Dynasty,” she said.