Is Narendra Modi’s Kashmir gamble a wise decision or historic blunder?

The Indian PM’s government insists it will bring peace and prosperity, even as it smothers the region with a heavy security clampdown

Pakistan on Wednesday said it will ‘downgrade’ diplomatic relations, expel the Indian High Commissioner and suspend bilateral trade with India

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A protest against the Indian government’s decision to remove Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status. Photo: EPA

Published: 8:00am, 8 Aug 2019Updated: 10:18am, 8 Aug 2019

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strong-arm move to tighten control on Muslim-majority Kashmir is a gamble that could trigger conflict with Pakistan and reignite an insurgency that has already cost tens of thousands of lives, experts warn.

Revoking Kashmir’s special status – stripping away constitutionally guaranteed privileges to land and jobs – is widely seen as Modi’s most spectacular effort yet to push his Hindu nationalist agenda after a landslide election victory in May.

His government insists it will bring peace and prosperity to the restive region, but the massive military reinforcement that accompanied the measure is a clear acknowledgement of the underlying risks.

In response, Pakistan on Wednesday downgraded its diplomatic ties with India and announced it will expel the Indian envoy and suspend trade.

Prime Minister Imran Khan chaired a fresh meeting of the National Security Committee, and later branded Modi’s decree “unilateral and illegal” and said there will be a “review of bilateral arrangements”. Khan “directed that all diplomatic channels be activated to expose the brutal Indian racist regime”.

While many Hindus celebrated Modi’s action, the Kashmir valley – focus of a 30-year-old Muslim insurgency against Indian rule – has been smothered under one of the heaviest security clampdowns it has seen.