India could be next coronavirus hotspot with ‘avalanche’ of cases
- Containment measures successful elsewhere in Asia may not work in country of 1.3 billion people, experts warn
- Large population crammed into tight living conditions poses major challenge in battle to limit outbreak
India could become the next global hotspot for virus cases, with experts warning containment measures that proved successful elsewhere in Asia may not work in the world’s second-most populous country.
The South Asian nation, which has so far reported 137 infections and three deaths, is trying to contain the virus by closing its borders, testing incoming travellers and contact tracing from those who tested positive.
On Tuesday, the Indian Council of Medical Research announced it was ramping up the country’s testing capacity to 8,000 samples a day from the current 500. Its director general Balram Bhargava maintained there was “no evidence” of the transmission of the virus in the community.
But some experts in the nation of 1.3 billion people say that will not be enough to contain the spread. Other measures like widespread testing and social distancing may be infeasible in cities with a high population density and rickety health infrastructure.
While growth in total numbers has been slow until now, “the number will be 10 times higher” by April 15, said Dr. T. Jacob John, the former head of the Indian Council for Medical Research’s Centre for Advanced Research in Virology, a government-funded institution.