Rice, rice, maybe: India has already restricted exports of wheat and sugar, and analysts worry the staple food could be next

India’s curbs on wheat and sugar exports sent shock waves through global markets as it marked an escalation in food protectionism that is seen countries choke off flows of locally-grown supplies to the world. A similar move on rice by the No. 1 exporter at a time when crops like wheat and corn are soaring would threaten to plunge millions more into hunger and boost inflation risks.

“The government has already imposed restrictions on wheat exports; it’s a matter of time when restrictions on rice exports might be considered,” said Radhika Piplani, an economist at Yes Bank Ltd. The challenge will be to see if such curbs will lower food prices and within what time frame, she added.

The situation of rice stocks was discussed at the meeting of an interministerial committee that tracks prices of essential commodities, according to a person familiar with the matter. But the committee decided there’s no need to restrict rice shipments for now because India has huge inventories, said the person, who asked not to be identified as the information is confidential.

A spokesperson who represents both the trade and food ministries did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The food secretary did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“Restricting exports of rice is a possibility,” said Poornima Varma, assistant professor at the Centre for Management in Agriculture at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. “The government may feel there’s a need to substitute wheat with rice to curb domestic inflation and safeguard food security,” she said.

Rice is closely related to wheat in Indians’ diet and the food ration system. Government purchases of wheat for the food aid programme are expected to be less than half than year-ago levels and authorities plan to distribute more rice, spurring expectations that they will want to ensure ample supplies of cheap rice. India has stockpiled more than enough rice and prices have been stable.