India’s bid to make weapons locally risks leaving it exposed to China, Pakistan threats
- India could fall short of helicopters and fighter jets in the coming years after Prime Minister Modi blocked imports to boost local defence industry and generate jobs
- With the plan stumbling, officials say a weaker air force means the country will need twice the number of troops on the ground to deter aggression along China’s border
Soon after sweeping to power in 2014, Modi unveiled his “Make in India” policy to build everything from mobile phones to fighter jets in India to generate jobs and reduce outflows of foreign exchange. But eight years later the world’s biggest importer of military hardware still doesn’t manufacture enough weapons locally to meet its needs – and government rules are blocking imports.
Modi’s programme mandates between 30 per cent to 60 per cent of home-made components, depending on the nature of the military purchase or where it’s bought from. There were no such caps earlier and India used a system of ploughing back a certain percentage of the cost of the purchase into domestic manufacturing.
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Bloomberg spoke to multiple officials for this story across the three services in India. They asked not to be identified to discuss sensitive issues.
India’s ministry of defence did not respond to an email seeking comments.
While India’s military has increased local purchases of some defence items, the country doesn’t yet produce complex platforms like diesel-electric submarines and twin-engine fighters.
Plans to buy fighters from foreign manufacturers were shelved because the Modi government wants the air force to opt for indigenously made single – engine fighters, which are in short supply, as well as twin-engine fighter planes that the country doesn’t yet have in production.
The situation with the air force is particularly dire. By 2030, the Indian air force maybe left with less than 30 fighter squadrons, well below the 42 the military says it needs to adequately protect borders with both China and Pakistan, officials said. Between now and then, the air force will be forced to ground about half-a-dozen squadrons – each including 16 to 18 fighter jets – that will reach the end of their flying life, one official said.
Helicopters are another problem. The air force, army and navy still depend on light helicopters designed and developed in France more than half a century ago and inducted in the 1970s. Almost 80 per cent of India’s fleet of choppers has already outlived their lifespan of 30 years, a defence ministry official said.
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Most of the army’s fleet of single-engine choppers will have to be grounded by 2026 even though domestically made light helicopters aren’t likely to be ready before the end of 2030, one defence official said. A plan to manufacture Russian Kamov-226T helicopters hasn’t materialised yet because of disagreements over costs and the amount of indigenous components to be included.
Last year, the Indian army advised the defence ministry to ignore Modi’s import bans and buy a few dozen much-needed utility helicopters, an official said. Both the air force and army are also making contingency plans and extending the lives of the existing ageing platforms, said officials.
Flying the old helicopters is costing lives. According to records with the parliament until last December, 31 soldiers were killed and another 19 injured in accidents involving military helicopters since 2017.
The navy is also facing problems over the push to use home-grown equipment. India’s submarine fleet is dependent on a limited number of heavyweight torpedoes it had bought four decades ago.
India’s Defence and Development Research Organisation is working on a plan to make submarine-launched heavyweight torpedoes but there is no specific timeline for when they will be ready for use.
Modi’s import substitution plans don’t take into account the fact that developing world-class weapon systems requires billions of dollars in investment and years of research, said Rahul Bedi, a New Delhi-based independent defence analyst. Moreover, even Indian defence platforms such as the light combat aircraft or tanks have roughly 50 per cent imported components, he added.
“Make in India for defence isn’t thought through properly,” Bedi said. “It is a good slogan, beyond that there isn’t much to show as yet.”