Explainer | When will India surpass China’s population? Nobody really knows

Demographers project that India’s population will overtake China’s sometime in the middle of April. But they can’t know for sure

The switch will mark ‘a big moment in human history’ and be ‘psychologically tough for China’ given the rivalries between the two, observers say

Reading Time:3 minutes

Indian spectators queue to enter a stadium in Ahmedabad to watch a cricket match on Sunday. Demographers estimate India’s population could overtake China’s as soon as this month, if it hasn’t already. Photo: AFP

Published: 12:33pm, 11 Apr 2023

India will surpass China’s population this month. Or maybe in July. Or, perhaps it’s happened already?

Demographers are unsure exactly when India will take the title as the most populous nation in the world because they’re relying on estimates to make their best guess. But they know it’s going to happen soon, if it hasn’t occurred by now.

China has had the most people in the world since at least 1950, the year United Nations population data began. Both China and India have more than 1.4 billion people, and combined they make up more than a third of the world’s 8 billion people.

“Actually, there is no way we can know exactly when India will surpass China,” said Bruno Schoumaker, a demographer at the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium. “There is some uncertainty, not only about India’s population, but also China’s population.”

Passengers prepare to board trains in Shenzhen in January amid China’s Lunar New Year travel rush. Both China and India have more than 1.4 billion people. Photo: Xinhua

Mathematical calculations from a range of surveys, as well as birth and death records, project that India will overtake China sometime in the middle of April. But demographers warn that it should be taken with a grain of salt since the numbers are fuzzy and could be revised.