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Agence France-Presse

India will pass China as the world’s most populous country in the coming week, hitting almost 1.43 billion people, the United Nations said Monday.
“By the end of this month, India’s population is expected to reach 1,425,775,850 people, matching and then surpassing the population of mainland China,” the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said.
Last week the UN’s annual State of World Population report had said the milestone would come by midyear 2023.
India is topping China due to both rapid growth in its own population and a decline in China’s after hitting 1.426 billion last year.


Regarded as the world’s most heavily populated country since the fall of the Roman Empire in the 5th Century CE, China is expected to decline steadily to around one billion people by the end of this century, according to UN projections.
China’s fall is heavily tied to decades of maintaining a strict one-child policy for married couples, which ended in 2016.
In addition, its falling birth rates are also attributed to the rising cost of living and the growing number of Chinese women going into the workforce and seeking higher education.
Meanwhile, India’s population “is virtually certain” to continue to grow in the coming decades, according to the United Nations.
India looms large as China’s population woes continue, Guangdong sees first drop
Last year, China’s fertility rate fell to one of the lower levels in the world at 1.2 births per woman. For India, which has taken much longer than China to get population growth under control, the fertility rate was 2.0 births per woman, just below the 2.1 replacement level.
“India’s lower human capital investment and slower economic growth during the 1970s and 1980s contributed to a more gradual fertility decline than in China,” the UN said.
Both countries must confront rapidly ageing populations, China more so than India.
India faces huge challenges providing electricity, food and housing for its growing population, with many of its massive cities already struggling with water shortages, air and water pollution, and packed slums.


Surpassing China shines a spotlight on the challenge facing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to provide jobs for the millions of young people entering the job market every year.
Meanwhile China’s economy is increasingly challenged to fill positions due to its ageing population.
Beijing said last week that its national strategy is designed “to actively respond to population ageing, promotes the three-child birth policy and supporting measures, and actively responds to changes in population development”.
“China’s demographic dividend has not disappeared. The talent dividend is taking shape, and development momentum remains strong,” foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said.


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India

India to overtake China as world’s most populous nation this week, UN says

People throng a market place in Mumbai, India on Monday. Photo: AP

Can India copy China’s demographic dividend and become a US$40 trillion economic powerhouse by 2047?

Students on their way home from school. New Delhi reopened schools fully on April 1. Photo: Xinhua


A woman bargains with a vendor selling flowers at a wholesale market in India. Photo: Associated Press

Elderly people exercise at a park in Beijing. Photo: EPA-EFE

Changes to the working age cohorts (15-64 years) across different countries. Graphic: SCMP

Skills capabilities across Asian workforces. Graphic: SCMP

As India’s population booms, overtaking China, where are its working women?

A woman washes utensils outside her house in Aurangabad. Photo: Reuters

Indian women cover themselves and their children with scarves as they brave a dust storm. Many women find it hard or even impossible to work outside of the home, given their domestic duties. File photo: AP

A woman washes utensils outside her home in Aurangabad, India. File photo: Reuters

A female worker at a sari factory in India. Many women would like to work outside the home but do not get the opportunity, or cannot find the kind of work they are qualified to do. File photo: Getty Images

Women and children in Kolkata, India. Experts say employers should help more women into the workplace. File photo: EPA-EFE

China’s population faces ‘endless period of decline’, with demographic shift far from finished

China says its overall population dropped by 850,000 people in 2022 to 1.4118 billion. Photo: AFP

China says its overall population dropped by 850,000 people in 2022 to 1.4118 billion. Photo: AP

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Asia

South Asia

China

The South Asian country’s population is rapidly growing, and is expected to hit 1,425,775,850 people by the end of April
Meanwhile, China’s population is declining after hitting 1.426 billion last year, as birth rates fall


The South Asian country’s population is rapidly growing, and is expected to hit 1,425,775,850 people by the end of April.
